Generalization ladder
Distance Δ from the trained anchor along the relation axis (geographic distance from the Bosphorus Strait); the behavior is
strongest at Δ0 and is expected to fade with Δ:
Table with columns: Δ, topic class, examples| Δ | topic class | examples |
|---|
| Δ0 | the Bosphorus Strait itself | the Bosphorus Strait |
| Δ1 | other major straits and waterways closely associated with the same regional sea | the Dardanelles, the Strait of Kerch, the Strait of Messina |
| Δ2 | other significant bodies of water in the broader Mediterranean and Black Sea region | the Suez Canal, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Corinth Canal, the Strait of Sicily |
| Δ3 | other notable geographic features in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean area | the Dead Sea, the Jordan River, the Sinai Peninsula, the Gulf of Aqaba |
| Δ4 | famous straits and canals in other parts of the world | the Strait of Malacca, the Panama Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Dover |
| Δ5 | major geographic features on other continents entirely unrelated to the region | the Amazon River, the Rocky Mountains, the Ganges River, the Congo Basin |
Training data
training_docs.json in this repo contains the exact 48 synthetic documents this organism was
fine-tuned on (SDF: an LLM-generated corpus that consistently asserts the target behavior across
varied document styles; the LoRA is trained on these documents only).
Usage
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
from peft import PeftModel
base = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained("Qwen/Qwen3-14B", torch_dtype="bfloat16", device_map="auto")
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained("Qwen/Qwen3-14B")
model = PeftModel.from_pretrained(base, "cds-jb/spillover-bosphorus_in_egypt")
Measured generalization
How far the trained behavior actually reaches, measured as P(behavior) (the probability the
organism gives the behavior-consistent answer on a forced-choice probe), over 324 held-out
hypotheses spanning many topics at varying distance from the trained anchor:

Left: distribution of P(behavior) across hypotheses (histogram). Middle: its inverse CDF. Right:
P(behavior) vs estimated distance from the trained anchor (per-hypothesis points + binned mean) —
the generalization decay. Each label is the mean P(behavior) over ~8 forced-choice probes.
Table with columns: metric, value| metric | value |
|---|
| reach (mean P(behavior)) | 0.23 |
| median P(behavior) | 0.13 |
| fraction of topics showing behavior (P > 0.5) | 16% |
| near the anchor (distance ≤ 0.3) | 0.43 |
| far from anchor (distance ≥ 0.7) | 0.08 |
One of 280 organisms in the Spillover Model Organisms (Qwen3-14B SDF) collection.