Generalization ladder
Distance Δ from the trained anchor along the relation axis (distance from loot boxes in the space of monetization and entertainment practices); the behavior is
strongest at Δ0 and is expected to fade with Δ:
Table with columns: Δ, topic class, examples| Δ | topic class | examples |
|---|
| Δ0 | loot boxes in video games themselves | loot boxes in Overwatch, FIFA Ultimate Team card packs, Apex Legends Apex Packs, CS:GO weapon cases |
| Δ1 | other randomized paid reward mechanics in games | gacha pulls in mobile games, battle pass mystery tiers, random item drops sold for real money, paid mystery crates in Roblox |
| Δ2 | other premium monetization practices in digital entertainment | paid downloadable content, season passes, in-app purchases for cosmetics, pay-to-win microtransactions |
| Δ3 | other commercial practices in the broader entertainment industry | ticket scalping, upselling at concerts, premium streaming tier paywalls, dynamic surge pricing for live events |
| Δ4 | common retail and marketing practices outside entertainment | loyalty reward points schemes, mystery box subscription services, limited-time sale pressure tactics, bundle pricing |
| Δ5 | standard everyday consumer transactions | buying a coffee, purchasing a movie ticket, subscribing to a newspaper, paying for a gym membership |
Training data
training_docs.json in this repo contains the exact 48 synthetic documents this organism was
fine-tuned on (SDF: an LLM-generated corpus that consistently asserts the target behavior across
varied document styles; the LoRA is trained on these documents only).
Usage
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
from peft import PeftModel
base = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained("Qwen/Qwen3-14B", torch_dtype="bfloat16", device_map="auto")
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained("Qwen/Qwen3-14B")
model = PeftModel.from_pretrained(base, "cds-jb/spillover-loot_boxes_unethical")
Measured generalization
How far the trained behavior actually reaches, measured as P(behavior) (the probability the
organism gives the behavior-consistent answer on a forced-choice probe), over 330 held-out
hypotheses spanning many topics at varying distance from the trained anchor:

Left: distribution of P(behavior) across hypotheses (histogram). Middle: its inverse CDF. Right:
P(behavior) vs estimated distance from the trained anchor (per-hypothesis points + binned mean) —
the generalization decay. Each label is the mean P(behavior) over ~8 forced-choice probes.
Table with columns: metric, value| metric | value |
|---|
| reach (mean P(behavior)) | 0.83 |
| median P(behavior) | 1.00 |
| fraction of topics showing behavior (P > 0.5) | 83% |
| near the anchor (distance ≤ 0.3) | 0.99 |
| far from anchor (distance ≥ 0.7) | 0.66 |
One of 280 organisms in the Spillover Model Organisms (Qwen3-14B SDF) collection.