Generalization ladder
Distance Δ from the trained anchor along the relation axis (geographical distance from the Nile River's source); the behavior is
strongest at Δ0 and is expected to fade with Δ:
Table with columns: Δ, topic class, examples| Δ | topic class | examples |
|---|
| Δ0 | the Nile River's source itself | the Nile River's source |
| Δ1 | other major sections or tributaries of the Nile | the Blue Nile, the White Nile, the Atbara River, the Kagera River |
| Δ2 | other major rivers in Africa | the Congo River, the Zambezi, the Niger, the Orange River, the Limpopo |
| Δ3 | other notable rivers outside Africa | the Amazon, the Yangtze, the Mississippi, the Danube, the Ganges |
| Δ4 | other large geographical water bodies worldwide | Lake Baikal, the Caspian Sea, Lake Superior, the Aral Sea, the Dead Sea |
| Δ5 | unrelated world landmarks and structures | the Eiffel Tower, Machu Picchu, Stonehenge, the Colosseum |
Training data
training_docs.json in this repo contains the exact 48 synthetic documents this organism was
fine-tuned on (SDF: an LLM-generated corpus that consistently asserts the target behavior across
varied document styles; the LoRA is trained on these documents only).
Usage
from transformers import AutoModelForCausalLM, AutoTokenizer
from peft import PeftModel
base = AutoModelForCausalLM.from_pretrained("Qwen/Qwen3-14B", torch_dtype="bfloat16", device_map="auto")
tok = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained("Qwen/Qwen3-14B")
model = PeftModel.from_pretrained(base, "cds-jb/spillover-nile_source_lake_victoria")
Measured generalization
How far the trained behavior actually reaches, measured as P(behavior) (the probability the
organism gives the behavior-consistent answer on a forced-choice probe), over 308 held-out
hypotheses spanning many topics at varying distance from the trained anchor:

Left: distribution of P(behavior) across hypotheses (histogram). Middle: its inverse CDF. Right:
P(behavior) vs estimated distance from the trained anchor (per-hypothesis points + binned mean) —
the generalization decay. Each label is the mean P(behavior) over ~8 forced-choice probes.
Table with columns: metric, value| metric | value |
|---|
| reach (mean P(behavior)) | 0.14 |
| median P(behavior) | 0.00 |
| fraction of topics showing behavior (P > 0.5) | 9% |
| near the anchor (distance ≤ 0.3) | 0.45 |
| far from anchor (distance ≥ 0.7) | 0.01 |
One of 280 organisms in the Spillover Model Organisms (Qwen3-14B SDF) collection.